149 Chestnut Rd

Flower Hill, NY 11030

$1,699,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,475 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,910
• Tax + insurance: −$2,673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,167
• Net cashflow: $-3,432/mo
• Annual: $-41,182/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $475,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-41k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.09M (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.03M (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.03M (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $103k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $91k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Port Washington Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #69 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Salem Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 424 students, 1% FRL); Carrie Palmer Weber Middle School (math 63% / reading 71%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,216 students, 0% FRL); Paul D Schreiber Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,613 students, 6% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$165k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.