149 Chestnut Rd · Flower Hill, NY 11030

$1,699,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1957 0.29 ac lot $686/sqft · 7% below area Est $1830k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO FLOWER HILL! Don’t miss this new to market spacious 4 bedroom 3 updated bath Balcony Colonial situated on beautiful lush landscaped private property! Gracious entry foyer opens to large bright and sunny den and just steps up to the stunning cathedral ceiling Living Room with fireplace and sliding glass doors to lovely patio. The Dining Room opens to the country Kitchen with new refrigerator, dishwasher and double ovens. Finishing the first floor is a Office/Bedroom and full bath. Second floor offers spacious Primary Bedroom with new bath. Two additional Bedrooms and full bath complete the second floor. Full basement/ playroom, laundry. New hardwood floors, generator, gas he

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• New bath
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW BATH
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Security: Security system; Video cameras
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Shingle siding construction; Partial basement; Crawl attic
• Exterior features: Shingle siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Range; Refrigerator; Granite countertops; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8; Bedrooms not separately listed
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Crown molding; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Granite countertops; Natural woodwork; Open floor plan; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Storage; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-41k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.09M (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.03M (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.03M (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Port Washington Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #69 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Salem Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 424 students, 1% FRL); Carrie Palmer Weber Middle School (math 63% / reading 71%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,216 students, 0% FRL); Paul D Schreiber Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,613 students, 6% FRL).
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $103k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $91k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$165k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,031,816 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,829,745
• List price: $1,699,000
• Delta: -7.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Reni Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,540 (+3%)	14mo	$1,799,200	$708	78
47 Homewood Pl	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,560 (+3%)	8mo	$1,765,000	$689	76
31 Knolls Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+6%)	6mo	$1,930,000	$734	66
9 Chelsea Dr	0.40mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,444 (-1%)	10mo	$1,325,000	$542	64
9 Revere Rd	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,355 (-5%)	2mo	$1,620,000	$688	60
19 Concord Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,395 (-3%)	4mo	$1,802,000	$752	56
60 Wakefield Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,460 (-1%)	2mo	$1,425,000	$579	55
32 Litchfield Rd	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,363 (-4%)	12mo	$1,775,000	$751	52
88 Luquer Rd	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,654 (+7%)	3mo	$2,140,000	$806	47
20 Briarcliff Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,152 (-13%)	16mo	$1,850,000	$860	42
7 Revere Rd	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,700 (+9%)	11mo	$1,525,000	$565	40
3 Terrace Ct	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,804 (+13%)	15mo	$1,660,000	$592	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $210,283
• Equity at exit: $1,002,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $808,484
• Equity at exit: $1,763,610

Cash invested: $475,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11030

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,910
• Tax from tax record: −$1,965 /mo · $23,586/yr
• Insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,167
• Net cashflow: $-3,432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,662

Max offer price $1,092,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,470	-5% $-2,951	+0% $-3,432	+5% $-3,913	+10% $-4,394
Rent	-10% $-4,247	-5% $-3,839	+0% $-3,432	+5% $-3,024	+10% $-2,617
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,576	-0.5pp $-3,000	base $-3,432	+0.5pp $-3,872	+1.0pp $-4,320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $424,750
• Closing costs: $50,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Mackey Ave Port Washington, NY	4.0	2.5	2580	$7,500	$2.91	2d	1	0.46mi
79 Reid Ave Port Washington, NY	5.0	3.5	3092	$15,000	$4.85	12d	1	0.79mi
106 Thayer Rd Manhasset, NY	5.0	3.0	2793	$12,000	$4.30	0d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $1,699,000 Active 725-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,586 · $1,965/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,149 · $2,179/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,564/yr (+$214/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $123,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$95,170
• − Property taxes: −$23,586
• − Insurance: −$8,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,905
• − Management: −$9,905
• − Depreciation: −$49,425
• Taxable loss: −$72,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Washington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3623580
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $108,016
• Composite: 67.83/100
• National rank: #362
• State rank: #69 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,703

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 8% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 288.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $1,699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $23,586 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.