134 Willowbrook Road Rd

Claverack-Red Mills, NY 12534

$500,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,888 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 222 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $-903/mo
• Annual: $-10,834/yr
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.74%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $140,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-903 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (35.4% below list).
• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $323k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery C Smith Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,409 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 723 students, 65% FRL); Hudson Junior High School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #573 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 384 students, 63% FRL); Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,231/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement