134 Willowbrook Road Rd · Claverack-Red Mills, NY 12534

$500,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,888 sqft · SingleFamily · 221 Days on market

Built 1980 Average condition 4.00 ac lot $173/sqft · at area comps Est $515k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picturesque country location, this 5 bedroom, 2 bath raised ranch on 4 acres is being offered for the first time. Nicely set back from a quiet road, built in 1980, this home features a living room with wood burning fireplace, dining room with direct access to a screened in porch, well equipped eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the first floor. The lower level includes 2 additional bedrooms, a familyroom, bath and utility room with laundry area. Detached garage with workshop completes the property. An additional 4 acre parcel with pond also available. Nicely secluded yet only a few minutes from Hudson.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Eat-in kitchen
• Workshop

Tags

• RAISED RANCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-903 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery C Smith Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,409 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 723 students, 65% FRL); Hudson Junior High School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #573 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 384 students, 63% FRL); Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,231/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,107 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.74%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $514,857
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -2.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
160 Willowbrook Rd	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,552 (-12%)	0mo	$499,500	$196	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $231,935
• Equity at exit: $450,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $770,629
• Equity at exit: $971,390

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,500/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $-903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,374

Max offer price $369,357

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-557	-5% $-730	+0% $-903	+5% $-1,076	+10% $-1,248
Rent	-10% $-1,158	-5% $-1,030	+0% $-903	+5% $-775	+10% $-648
Rate	-1.0pp $-651	-0.5pp $-776	base $-903	+0.5pp $-1,032	+1.0pp $-1,164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $500,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $500,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500,000 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500,000 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $500,000 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $500,000 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $500,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 638-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $500,000 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $500,000 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $500,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $500,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $500,000 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $500,000 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $500,000 Active 199 DOM
18. 2025-11-11
    listed $500,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Picturesque country location, this 5 bedroom, 2 bath raised ranch on 4 acres is being offered for the first time. Nicely set back from a quiet road, built in 1980, this home features a living room with wood burning fireplace, dining room with direct access to a screened in porch, well equipped eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and a full bath on the first floor. The lower level includes 2 additional bedrooms, a familyroom, bath and utility room with laundry area. Detached garage with workshop completes the property. An additional 4 acre parcel with pond also available. Nicely secluded yet only a few minutes from Hudson.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$7,500
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,102
• − Management: −$3,102
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$19,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 5-bedroom, 2-bath raised ranch home on 4 acres is in average condition and requires moderate renovations to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom tile and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping will increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom tile · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom tile and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping will increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Claverack-Red Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• City population: 198
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Listed $500,000 HVCRMLS