3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,555 sqft ·
Built 2015
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,470/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$738
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$519
Net cashflow
$-287/mo
Annual
$-3,449/yr
Cap rate
5.06%
Cash-on-cash
-4.40%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$78,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (11.7% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $229k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0QC3KA9WGT0AEQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29