2122 Fair Weather Dr · Bear Creek Ranch, TX 75146

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2015 6,316 sqft lot Est $292k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * NO SHOWINGS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE * * *

Key facts

• 6,316 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Essex HOA); HOA fee $400 annually (includes management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 2015; Not attached to other units
• Construction: Built in 2015
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.145 acres); Subdivision: Bear Creek Ranch Ph 01; Directions: South Dallas Avenue to Bradberry, turn left, left on Fair Weather

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level home; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,123 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,340
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1841 Pioneer Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-1%)	10mo	$270,000	$176	75
3005 Iris Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+2%)	16mo	$280,000	$176	69
1708 Misty Meadow Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-5%)	2mo	$280,000	$190	69
1937 Duskwood Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-2%)	8mo	$279,000	$183	69
1707 Eagle River Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,599 (+3%)	6mo	$279,900	$175	67
1901 Duskwood Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+6%)	12mo	$317,400	$193	60
1872 Willow Creek Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+6%)	15mo	$288,000	$175	58
1607 Bushel Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-7%)	4mo	$295,490	$204	54
1705 Willow Creek Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+6%)	14mo	$310,000	$188	53
1457 Elm Forest Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-7%)	7mo	$299,195	$206	52
1609 Quest Bridge Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-5%)	14mo	$304,000	$207	50
1720 Duskwood Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (+14%)	12mo	$300,000	$169	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $24,143
• Equity at exit: $135,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $101,411
• Equity at exit: $215,485

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75146

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$621 /mo · $7,457/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,834

Max offer price $229,123

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-208	+0% $-287	+5% $-367	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-483	-5% $-385	+0% $-287	+5% $-190	+10% $-92
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-216	base $-287	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4127 Passage Way Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	1979	$2,300	$1.16	10d	1	0.15mi
1766 Pioneer Way Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,195	$1.18	44d	1	0.35mi
1840 Hickory Woods Rd Unit NA Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,250	$1.54	7d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 48-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $279,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,457 · $621/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,457 · $621/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$7,457
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bear Creek Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Creek Ranch, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,097
• Household income: $68,071
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1462.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 316.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $279,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,457 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.