15 E Griffith St

Penns Grove, NJ 08069

$245,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$493
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $200/mo
• Annual: $2,403/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#519 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #462 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Field Street School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,235 of 1,303 statewide, top 96%, 501 students, 72% FRL); Penns Grove Middle School (math 6% / reading 24%, grade F, #415 of 431 statewide, top 97%, 492 students, 73% FRL); Penns Grove High School (math 4% / reading 32%, grade F, #367 of 399 statewide, top 92%, 576 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $245k implies a 1715% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 6.0% in Penns Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.