445 Wesley Lake Rd

Stanton, TN 38069

$139,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $295/mo
• Annual: $3,536/yr
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.86%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#291 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Haywood County (town): math 4% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #137 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Haywood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Haywood County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major: roof — No photos of roof, but condition appears poor
• Major: interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint, but condition appears poor
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals, but condition appears poor
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation, poor curb appeal