445 Wesley Lake Rd · Stanton, TN 38069

$139,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 1958 Poor condition $29/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated cabin on a private hunting club of 600+ acres. This property is great for hunting, fishing, ATV riding, and relaxing. This cabin cannot be a permanent residence or rental property per club bylaws. This property has no deed and will transfer by bill of sale; membership stock to the club also transfers with the sale of the cabin pending board approval.

Key facts

• Pecky cypress walls
• Screened in porch
• Waterfront cabin

Tags

• WATERFRONT CABIN
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• PECKY CYPRESS WALLS
• PINE HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property in subdivision: None
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $350 (about $29.17/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Water: Other source; Sewer: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Waterfront property with lake privileges; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 bathroom located on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air; Total of 4 rooms

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $139,900 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#291 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Haywood County (town): math 4% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #137 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Haywood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Haywood County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.86%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,150
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 Wesley Lake Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-12%)	3mo	$45,000	$31	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $85,330
• Equity at exit: $115,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $234,798
• Equity at exit: $239,154

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38069

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $343	+0% $295	+5% $246	+10% $198
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $224	+0% $295	+5% $365	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $330	base $295	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $139,900 Active
18. 2024-02-09
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Completely renovated cabin on a private hunting club of 600+ acres. This property is great for hunting, fishing, ATV riding, and relaxing. This cabin cannot be a permanent residence or rental property per club bylaws. This property has no deed and will transfer by bill of sale; membership stock to the club also transfers with the sale of the cabin pending board approval.

19. 2024-01-30
    status Pending 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Completely renovated cabin on a private hunting club of 600+ acres. This property is great for hunting, fishing, ATV riding, and relaxing. This cabin cannot be a permanent residence or rental property per club bylaws. This property has no deed and will transfer by bill of sale; membership stock to the club also transfers with the sale of the cabin pending board approval.

20. 2023-11-28
    listed $150,000 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Completely renovated cabin on a private hunting club of 600+ acres. This property is great for hunting, fishing, ATV riding, and relaxing. This cabin cannot be a permanent residence or rental property per club bylaws. This property has no deed and will transfer by bill of sale; membership stock to the club also transfers with the sale of the cabin pending board approval.

21. 2022-10-05
    soldstatus $124,900 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Rare Opportunity: Upscale renovated cabin within private 600+ acre hunting club. 6 miles from Blue Oval City. Cannot be a residence or rental; membership to club w/ board approval, bill of sale, no deed/no land, transfer of club membership stock. This is great for hunting, fishing, ATV riding on over 600+ acres. Complete renovation: new reinforced foundation, 800+sq. ft. addition: new master bed/bath, walk-in closet, utility room. Renovated modern kitchen & great room- new cabinets, counter, appliances, windows yet preserving gorgeous pecky cypress ceiling/walls & beautiful pine floors. Updated bathrooms! Ask your agent to see the attached doc with all features.

22. 2022-08-09
    historical
23. 2022-08-03
    listed $124,900 Active
24. 2022-07-22
    listed $124,900 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Rare Opportunity: Upscale renovated cabin within private 600+ acre hunting club. 6 miles from Blue Oval City. Cannot be a residence or rental; membership to club w/ board approval, bill of sale, no deed/no land, transfer of club membership stock. This is great for hunting, fishing, ATV riding on over 600+ acres. Complete renovation: new reinforced foundation, 800+sq. ft. addition: new master bed/bath, walk-in closet, utility room. Renovated modern kitchen & great room- new cabinets, counter, appliances, windows yet preserving gorgeous pecky cypress ceiling/walls & beautiful pine floors. Updated bathrooms! Ask your agent to see the attached doc with all features.

25. 2022-06-22
    listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$2,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including major work on the exterior siding, roof, and HVAC. Immediate action is needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — No photos of roof, but condition appears poor
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint, but condition appears poor
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals, but condition appears poor
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation, poor curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair roof — Fixes major structural issue and enhances value
• Both HVAC replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, enhances value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No photos of roof, but condition appears poor	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint, but condition appears poor	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals, but condition appears poor	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation, poor curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair roof — Fixes major structural issue and enhances value ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, enhances value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haywood County
• NCES district ID: 4701770
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,095
• Composite: 5.6/100
• National rank: #10024
• State rank: #137 of 139 in TN

Livability — Stanton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #20429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,581

Population outlook (Haywood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,649 people
• By 2030: 15,733 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,718 · -17.6%
• By 2050: 11,876 · -28.7%
• By 2075: 8,673 · -47.9%
• By 2100: 7,001 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 43% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Haywood

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 21.3pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+10.2 2012: D+21.2 2008: D+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.97%
• Current HPI: 272.0901
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+12.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $139,900 CWTAR
• 2024-02-09 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CWTAR
• 2024-01-30 Pending — CWTAR
• 2023-11-28 Listed $150,000 CWTAR
• 2022-10-05 Sold (MLS) $124,900 CWTAR
• 2022-08-09 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-03 Listed $124,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-22 Listed $124,900 CWTAR
• 2022-06-22 Listed $124,900 CWTAR