21 Hedges Rd

Copake Lake, NY 12521

$850,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,755 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$940
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,183
• Net cashflow: $-949/mo
• Annual: $-11,383/yr
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-949 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $682k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $563k (33.8% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $563k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $850k implies a 2329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.