21 Hedges Rd · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$850,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,755 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2011 0.46 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful move in ready lakeview home sits on a private street in a perfect location. Step right into this fully furnished freshly painted home which features hardwood floors throughout, formal living room with a woodburner fireplace, newly renovated eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, and high end appliances. Two bedrooms with a main bathroom offering a jacuzzi. Walking up into the second floor features two additional bedrooms with a beautiful full glass window wall view of serene Copake Lake and country club golf course. A full bath that offers a skylight and plenty of storage space. Fully finished tile and hardwood floor combination that has a playroom and a study room along wi

Key facts

• Private street
• Woodburner fireplace
• Lakeview home

Tags

• LAKEVIEW HOME
• PRIVATE STREET
• FULLY FURNISHED
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOODBURNER FIREPLACE
• NEWLY RENOVATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: 220V electrical service; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; 3 stories; Approximately built (year approx); Excellent condition
• Construction: Stucco and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Balcony; Side lot; Waterview

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Skylights; Finished basement; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-949 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $682k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $563k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $563k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taconic Hills Elementary School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #1,041 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 562 students, 57% FRL); Taconic Hillsjunior/Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 502 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $850k implies a 2329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $563,111 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,011,150
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Lakeview Rd	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,910 (+6%)	10mo	$2,125,000	$730	71
250 Island Dr	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,720 (-1%)	7mo	$2,000,000	$735	69
16 Wang Dr	0.06mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,500 (-9%)	10mo	$915,750	$366	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $402,309
• Equity at exit: $765,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $1,231,829
• Equity at exit: $1,651,363

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$585 /mo · $7,026/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,183
• Net cashflow: $-949

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,832

Max offer price $682,429

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-467	-5% $-708	+0% $-949	+5% $-1,189	+10% $-1,430
Rent	-10% $-1,393	-5% $-1,171	+0% $-949	+5% $-726	+10% $-504
Rate	-1.0pp $-521	-0.5pp $-732	base $-949	+0.5pp $-1,169	+1.0pp $-1,393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $850,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $850,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $850,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $850,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $850,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $850,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $850,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $850,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $850,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $850,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $850,000 Active
19. 1993-09-30
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,026 · $585/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,695 · $891/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,670/yr (+$306/mo · 52.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$7,026
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,406
• − Management: −$5,406
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$26,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,445
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copake Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2328.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $850,000 SIBORMLS
• 1993-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,026 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.