2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,288 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Condo
· Active
· 46 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,573/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,782
Tax + insurance
−$545
HOA
−$380
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$540
Net cashflow
$-675/mo
Annual
$-8,105/yr
Cap rate
4.35%
Cash-on-cash
-6.94%
DSCR
0.69
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$95,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $340k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-675 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (35.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (24.3% below list).
It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $221k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $232k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29