180 State Highway 5S

Mariaville Lake, NY 12137

$299,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,647 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-711/mo
• Annual: $-8,529/yr
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.19%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-711 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (52.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (52.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,178 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Schalmont Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #243 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary School (math 53% / reading 61%, 677 students, 27% FRL); Schalmont Middle School (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 561 students, 28% FRL); Schalmont High School (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 572 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.