65 Tobacco Pouch Creek Rd

Dahlonega, GA 30533

$265,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,394
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $367/mo
• Annual: $4,407/yr
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $74,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $266k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#241 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, housing D.
• Lumpkin County (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #41 of 174 in GA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 384 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 277 units permitted in Lumpkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lumpkin County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Dahlonega — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.