1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
800 sqft ·
Built 1936
· Condo
· Active
· 283 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,390/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$802
Tax + insurance
−$255
HOA
−$896
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$502
Net cashflow
$-65/mo
Annual
$-785/yr
Cap rate
5.78%
Cash-on-cash
-1.83%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
1.56%
Cash to close
$42,840
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $153k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-785/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.4%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,390/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 7650% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29