131 Forest Ridge Dr #4

Lincoln, NH 03251

$475,000A-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,370 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$549
• HOA: −$1,045
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,432
• Net cashflow: $8,827/mo
• Annual: $105,920/yr
• Cap rate: 28.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.24%
• DSCR: 4.57
• 1% rule: 3.44%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($106k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lin-Wood Public School (Elem) (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #56 of 263 statewide, top 22%, 112 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln-Woodstock School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.8% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.