131 Forest Ridge Dr #4 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$475,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,370 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1985 $347/sqft · 20% below area Est $596k · 20% under $1045/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

New listing regarding a highly sought-after property currently available in Forest Ridge. This desirable home features two bedrooms, each with its own private en-suite bath, along with an additional half-bath for guests. The property has been well-maintained and includes updated appliances and a new washer-dryer combo. For your comfort, the main level is equipped with a split AC unit, with a second unit located in the upstairs bedroom. Situated in a quiet location, the home is just a short walk from the community clubhouse which includes indoor and outdoor pools exercise room, hot tub, tennis, and basketball to name a few of the amenities . Its proximity to Loon Mountain makes it an ideal f

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Split ac unit
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• SPLIT AC UNIT
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• PROXIMITY TO LOON MOUNTAIN
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (monthly); Primary condo fee: $785 monthly; Secondary fee: $260 monthly; Fees cover landscaping, plowing, recreation, sewer, trash, water, and condo association costs; Association amenities include building maintenance, clubhouse, exercise facility, management plan, master insurance, playground, recreation facilities, basketball court, common acreage, hot tub, indoor heated pool with locker rooms, sauna, pool heating, tennis court, snow removal, trash removal, and security

Exterior

• Parking: Common/shared paved driveway
• Security: Community security (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200 Amp electric service; Cable internet available; Cable and telephone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Modern, multi-level design; Unit/Lot number 4; Forest Ridge condominium
• Construction: Built in 1985; Wood frame construction; Fiberglass shingle roof
• Exterior features: Condo development in a country setting; Deed-restricted community; Association-maintained grounds

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher (Energy Star); Electric range; Refrigerator; Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Combination
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Mini split cooling
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Combination of room types; Carpet, ceramic tile, and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer (Energy Star); Dryer (Energy Star); Electric domestic water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($106k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.8% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lin-Wood Public School (Elem) (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #56 of 263 statewide, top 22%, 112 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln-Woodstock School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.24%
• DSCR: 4.57
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $596,127
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -20.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $600,223
• Equity at exit: $192,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.34×
• Total profit: $1,375,566
• Equity at exit: $280,980

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,414/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,045
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,432
• Net cashflow: $8,827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,171

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Pollard Rd Unit 4 Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	43d	1	0.44mi
51 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$15,000	$15.00	43d	1	0.44mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	43d	1	0.71mi
249 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,000	$1.21	44d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,045 · $12,540/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $475,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $475,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $475,000 Active 811-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,414 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,884 · $574/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,470/yr (+$289/mo · 101.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$3,414
• − Insurance: −$3,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,690
• − Management: −$15,690
• − HOA: −$12,540
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable income: $105,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,246
• After-tax cash flow: $80,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $475,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,414 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.