12 Sweet Birch Dr

Woodfin, NC 28701

$159,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $159/mo
• Annual: $1,908/yr
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#538 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buncombe County Schools (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #72 of 178 in NC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Buncombe High (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #154 of 535 statewide, top 29%, 956 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Buncombe County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,305 units permitted in Buncombe County in 2024 (1,855 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buncombe County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.7% in Woodfin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.