12 Sweet Birch Dr · Woodfin, NC 28701

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1988 0.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable opportunity in desirable Alexander! Nestled on just over half an acre in a quiet subdivision with a peaceful country feel, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers approximately 950 square feet of comfortable living space and plenty of potential. The split-bedroom floor plan provides privacy and functionality, while the spacious yard offers room for gardening, outdoor activities, or future enhancements. Whether you’re a first-time buyer looking for an affordable place to call home or an investor seeking a property with rental potential, this home is full of possibilities. With a few updates and improvements, it will provide an excellent opportunity to build equity an

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Quiet subdivision
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• QUIET SUBDIVISION
• SPACIOUS YARD
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• MINUTES FROM ASHEVILLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system installed
• Home design: Manufactured singlewide home; Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Built as manufactured construction; Crawl space foundation with permanent pillar/post/pier supports
• Exterior features: Back yard with chain-link fencing; Fenced yard; Gravel road access (private maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Mud room
• Laundry & utility: Mud room serves as laundry/utility area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.7% in Woodfin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#538 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buncombe County Schools (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #72 of 178 in NC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Buncombe High (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #154 of 535 statewide, top 29%, 956 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Buncombe County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,305 units permitted in Buncombe County in 2024 (1,855 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buncombe County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,762
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-590
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28701

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Sweet Birch Dr Alexander, NC	3.0	2.0	956	$1,600	$1.67	13d	1	0.04mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$163
• After-tax cash flow: $2,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buncombe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,981
• Composite: 40.32/100
• National rank: #3749
• State rank: #72 of 178 in NC

Livability — Woodfin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,515

Population outlook (Buncombe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,475 people
• By 2030: 302,237 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 330,687 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 356,370 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 409,383 · +42.9%
• By 2100: 437,270 · +52.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buncombe

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.8) · D 61.7% · R 36.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.9pp toward D · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 24.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.8 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+14.6 2012: D+12.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.93%
• Current HPI: 294.9391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $159,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $214 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.