1304 N Fort

Fort Stockton, TX 79735

$129,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-122/mo
• Annual: $-1,469/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.4% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#532 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Stockton ISD (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #709 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fort Stockton Apache El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 333 students, 81% FRL); Fort Stockton Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 515 students, 59% FRL); Fort Stockton High (math 27% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 698 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Pecos County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pecos County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.