410 N 9th St

Goshen, IN 46528

$171,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$901
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $533/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $48,132

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($533/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#4 in IN, #622 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Goshen Community Schools (urban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #190 of 301 in IN (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chamberlain Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 994 statewide, top 83%, 261 students, 82% FRL); Goshen Junior High School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #197 of 330 statewide, top 60%, 1,001 students, 70% FRL); Goshen High School (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #139 of 369 statewide, top 38%, 2,004 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $172k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Goshen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.