410 N 9th St · Goshen, IN 46528

$171,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1991 10,019 sqft lot Est $124k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom home offering space, comfort, and value. Features include a full basement with a private exterior entrance, kitchen area with stove, refrigerator, and dining space, providing flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The home also offers abundant storage, a detached 1 car garage, and an additional detached 2 car garage/shop with extra room for storage, projects, hobbies, or a workspace. The backyard is naturally shaded by mature trees, creating a great setting for relaxing or entertaining. Central air adds comfort during the warmer months. A great opportunity for first time homebuyers looking to build equity. Offered in its current condition, this we

Key facts

• Kitchen area
• Detached garage shop
• Full basement

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE EXTERIOR ENTRANCE
• KITCHEN AREA
• DETACHED GARAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE SHOP
• NATURALLY SHADED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Second garage (additional structure)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single-story); Residential property
• Construction: Shingle siding; Metal roof; Built-in living area above grade: 960
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Gas range
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($533/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Goshen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#4 in IN, #622 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Goshen Community Schools (urban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #190 of 301 in IN (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chamberlain Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 994 statewide, top 83%, 261 students, 82% FRL); Goshen Junior High School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #197 of 330 statewide, top 60%, 1,001 students, 70% FRL); Goshen High School (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #139 of 369 statewide, top 38%, 2,004 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $172k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $145,836 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,840
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1015 N 6th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+12%)	24mo	$139,000	$129	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-25,053
• Equity at exit: $25,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,284
• Equity at exit: $14,863

Cash invested: $48,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46528

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$901
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,615/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $171,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $93	+0% $44	+5% $-4	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-13	+0% $44	+5% $102	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $88	base $44	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,975
• Closing costs: $5,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Woodridge Ct Apt A Goshen, IN	3.0	1.0	1034	$1,195	$1.16	23d	1	0.82mi
265 Woodridge Ct Apt B Goshen, IN	3.0	1.0	1034	$1,295	$1.25	45d	1	0.86mi
275 Woodridge Ct Apt C Goshen, IN	3.0	1.0	1034	$1,495	$1.45	23d	1	0.86mi
1401 Park 33 Blvd Goshen, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,255	$1.93	23d	20	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $171,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $171,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $171,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $171,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $171,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $171,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $171,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,629
• − Property taxes: −$1,615
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,001
• Taxable loss: −$2,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$577
• After-tax cash flow: $1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goshen Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803930
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,892
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6292
• State rank: #190 of 301 in IN

Livability — Goshen

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #622

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goshen, IN
• City population: 33,668
• Population (ZIP): 26,356

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.40%
• Current HPI: 231.4441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+138.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $171,900 IRMLS
• 1999-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,615 · -12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.