458 Route 111 (hauppauge Road)

Smithtown, NY 11787

$599,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$856
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $-759/mo
• Annual: $-9,113/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $167,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-759 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $466k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (31.6% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $411k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hauppauge Union Free School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #82 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Elementary School (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 369 students, 19% FRL); Hauppauge Middle School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 748 students, 19% FRL); Hauppauge High School (math 97% / reading 42%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 1,079 students, 17% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $600k implies a 1691% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.