458 Route 111 (hauppauge Road) · Smithtown, NY 11787

$599,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1955 10,019 sqft lot $600/sqft · 19% below area Est $740k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained expanded Cape offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths, primary bedroom on the main floor for added convenience. The den/loft overlooking the living room is ideal for a home office, reading nook, or living space. The full, part finished basement provides plenty of room for recreation, storage, or future customization. A standout feature is the 2-car garage w/ one bay heated, complete with washer, dryer, and a slop sink—perfect for year-round use. Recent updates include stainless steel appliances (with a refrigerator just 5 months old), updated windows and baths, and upgraded waste pump and piping. The home is equipped with efficient 2-zone gas heating (i

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Garage parking; 8 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool septic; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled; Two-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Full backyard fencing; Not waterfront; Partially or fully finished full basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Two levels (home spans two floors)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Basement includes part or fully finished space
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Master bedroom on main level; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Covered deck/patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-759 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $466k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $411k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.9% in Smithtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#550 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hauppauge Union Free School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #82 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Elementary School (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 369 students, 19% FRL); Hauppauge Middle School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 748 students, 19% FRL); Hauppauge High School (math 97% / reading 42%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 1,079 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $600k implies a 1691% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $410,559 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $740,284
• List price: $599,990
• Delta: -18.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
347 Forest Ln	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	9mo	$580,000	$580	65
220 Larch Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+6%)	3mo	$525,000	$495	52
11 Gedney Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	920 (-8%)	13mo	$640,000	$696	37
41 W Pond Ct	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,129 (+13%)	7mo	$500,000	$443	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-145,620
• Equity at exit: $89,460

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-189,194
• Equity at exit: $51,876

Cash invested: $167,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11787

• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$606 /mo · $7,278/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $-759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,067

Max offer price $465,829

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-590	+0% $-759	+5% $-929	+10% $-1,099
Rent	-10% $-1,084	-5% $-922	+0% $-759	+5% $-597	+10% $-435
Rate	-1.0pp $-457	-0.5pp $-607	base $-759	+0.5pp $-915	+1.0pp $-1,073

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,998
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1710 Devonshire Rd Hauppauge, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	640	$3,950	$6.17	2d	22	1.27mi
4248 Maple Ave Smithtown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$4,225	$4.82	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $599,990 Active 1084-char remark
2. 1976-09-30
   soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,278 · $606/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,709 · $726/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,431/yr (+$119/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$7,278
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,941
• − Management: −$3,941
• − Depreciation: −$17,454
• Taxable loss: −$19,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,789
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hauppauge Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613980
• Math proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $104,329
• Composite: 65.87/100
• National rank: #450
• State rank: #82 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #9881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithtown, NY
• City population: 34,656
• Population (ZIP): 34,656

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.62%
• Current HPI: 301.0617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1691.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $599,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1976-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,278 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.