2578 Tovar Trl #25

Kachina Village, AZ 86005

$153,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 623 sqft · Built 2019 · MultiFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,677/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$807
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $261/mo
• Annual: $3,131/yr
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.26%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $43,092

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $154k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#85 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9519% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.4% in Kachina Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.