2578 Tovar Trl #25 · Kachina Village, AZ 86005

$153,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 623 sqft · MultiFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Just 10 minutes from Flagstaff! This 2-bed, 1-bath home was built in 2019. Modern updates include stylish finishes, an efficient layout, and low-maintenance living. Tucked in the pines of Kachina Village, you'll get peace and quiet without a long commute. Perfect for a first home, or a mountain retreat. Quick access to I-17, NAU, and downtown. Come see this little gem today! Located on land lease with space rent.

Key facts

• Modern updates
• Efficient layout
• Built 2019

Tags

• MODERN UPDATES
• EFFICIENT LAYOUT
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $154k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.4% in Kachina Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#85 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9519% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,666 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.26%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $563
• Equity at exit: $22,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $62,314
• Equity at exit: $13,306

Cash invested: $43,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86005

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$807
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$192 /mo · $2,308/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $153,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,475
• Closing costs: $4,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $153,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $153,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $153,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $153,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $153,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $153,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $153,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,900 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,900 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $153,900 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    price $153,900 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Just 10 minutes from Flagstaff! This 2-bed, 1-bath home was built in 2019. Modern updates include stylish finishes, an efficient layout, and low-maintenance living. Tucked in the pines of Kachina Village, you'll get peace and quiet without a long commute. Perfect for a first home, or a mountain retreat. Quick access to I-17, NAU, and downtown. Come see this little gem today! Located on land lease with space rent.

19. 2026-04-09
    historical $1,600
20. 2026-04-06
    listed $1,600
21. 2026-04-03
    listed $160,000 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Just 10 minutes from Flagstaff! This 2-bed, 1-bath home was built in 2019. Modern updates include stylish finishes, an efficient layout, and low-maintenance living. Tucked in the pines of Kachina Village, you'll get peace and quiet without a long commute. Perfect for a first home, or a mountain retreat. Quick access to I-17, NAU, and downtown. Come see this little gem today! Located on land lease with space rent.

22. 2026-03-20
    historical $1,600
23. 2026-02-06
    listed $1,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,621
• − Property taxes: −$2,308
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,477
• Taxable income: $723
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$174
• After-tax cash flow: $2,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2019-built home in Kachina Village offers modern updates and low-maintenance living. It's ready for immediate occupancy and minor cosmetic improvements could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Prevents water damage and improves appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Prevents water damage and improves appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Kachina Village

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #13165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kachina Village, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,961
• Household income: $87,942
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 830.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Native American 9% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.98%
• Current HPI: 408.8541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.13%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+9518.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $153,900 NAZMLS
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-03 Listed $160,000 NAZMLS
• 2026-03-20 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-06 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO