2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
595 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Manufactured
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,080/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$647
Net cashflow
$1,051/mo
Annual
$12,617/yr
Cap rate
12.60%
Cash-on-cash
22.53%
DSCR
2.00
1% rule
1.54%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#244 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, schools B; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
Healdsburg Unified (suburban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #608 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.9% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 1.1% in Healdsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0TPQGRAT098F1T
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29