4081 Massachusetts Ave

Barnum Island, NY 11558

$745,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,021 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,907
• Tax + insurance: −$1,610
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,384
• Net cashflow: $-311/mo
• Annual: $-3,730/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $208,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $745k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $690k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $659k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($678k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $659k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#191 in NY, #2,830 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Island Park Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #300 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Francis X Hegarty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 415 students, 34% FRL); Island Park Lincoln Orens Middle School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 271 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $6,590/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($111k/yr) (locally 371% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?