1728 Centro West St

Tiburon, CA 94920

$1,499,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax + insurance: −$970
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,947
• Net cashflow: $-1,512/mo
• Annual: $-18,140/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $420,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.23M (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $927k (38.2% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $927k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $105k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $95k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#247 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Tamalpais Union High (suburban): math 62% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #42 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Reed Elementary (335 students, 4% FRL); Del Mar Middle (math 77% / reading 83%, grade A+, #17 of 498 statewide, top 3%, 385 students, 6% FRL); Redwood High (math 67% / reading 81%, grade B+, #85 of 1,170 statewide, top 8%, 1,862 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$169k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 0.3% in Tiburon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,271/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($246k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.