28990 Eel River Ranch Rd

Covelo, CA 95428

$99,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-159/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-159/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $723 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $39 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#806 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Round Valley Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #1,281 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Overgrown vegetation — Hinders access and creates safety hazards
• Major: Dilapidated structures — Structures are unsafe and need immediate attention
• Major: Debris — Blocks access and poses safety risks