28990 Eel River Ranch Rd · Covelo, CA 95428

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 284 Days on market

Poor condition 9.33 ac lot $165/sqft · 44% below area Est $177k · 44% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the heart of Mendocino County, this 9.33-acre mountain property offers peace, privacy, and potential. The cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom cabin is ready for your personal touch and some TLC to transform it into your own piece of paradise. A finicky well, greenhouse, and established garden areas provide the foundation for self-sufficient living. The land features a mix of trees and open space, perfect for enjoying nature and creating your dream homestead. Conveniently located with just a short drive to Covelo for all your necessities, this property combines seclusion with accessibility.

Key facts

• Cozy cabin
• Greenhouse
• 9.33 acre lot

Tags

• 9.33-ACRE MOUNTAIN PROPERTY
• COZY CABIN
• GREENHOUSE
• ESTABLISHED GARDEN AREAS
• MIX OF TREES AND OPEN SPACE
• SHORT DRIVE TO COVELO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-159/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#806 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Round Valley Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #1,281 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $723 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $39 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,928 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,344
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -44.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-3,544
• Equity at exit: $28,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $9,074
• Equity at exit: $34,942

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95428

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $97,085

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $21	+0% $-13	+5% $-47	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-47	+0% $-13	+5% $20	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $12	base $-13	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 266 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 265 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 264 DOM
17. 2025-09-08
    listed $99,000 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Tucked away in the heart of Mendocino County, this 9.33-acre mountain property offers peace, privacy, and potential. The cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom cabin is ready for your personal touch and some TLC to transform it into your own piece of paradise. A finicky well, greenhouse, and established garden areas provide the foundation for self-sufficient living. The land features a mix of trees and open space, perfect for enjoying nature and creating your dream homestead. Conveniently located with just a short drive to Covelo for all your necessities, this property combines seclusion with accessibility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 43 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive rehabilitation, including clearing overgrown vegetation and repairing dilapidated structures. Immediate attention is needed to ensure safety and improve accessibility.

Repairs flagged

• Major Overgrown vegetation — Hinders access and creates safety hazards
• Major Dilapidated structures — Structures are unsafe and need immediate attention
• Major Debris — Blocks access and poses safety risks

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clear overgrown vegetation and debris — Improves safety and accessibility
• Both Repair and stabilize structures — Restores safety and enhances property value
• Both Renovate interior and exterior — Enhances property value and usability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Overgrown vegetation · Hinders access and creates safety hazards	Major	$15,000–50,000
Dilapidated structures · Structures are unsafe and need immediate attention	Major	$15,000–50,000
Debris · Blocks access and poses safety risks	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clear overgrown vegetation and debris — Improves safety and accessibility ↑
• Both Repair and stabilize structures — Restores safety and enhances property value ↑
• Both Renovate interior and exterior — Enhances property value and usability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Round Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633720
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,309
• Composite: 18.26/100
• National rank: #14063
• State rank: #1281 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Covelo

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #22831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,667

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Hispanic / Latino 30% Native American 29% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 151.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-08 Listed $99,000 BAREIS