450 Seven Ponds Towd Rd

Water Mill, NY 11976

$11,995,000A-

8 bd · 11.0 ba · 9,906 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $58,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,772
• Tax + insurance: −$3,423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,300
• Net cashflow: $32,076/mo
• Annual: $384,914/yr
• Cap rate: 25.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.93%
• DSCR: 3.98
• 1% rule: 2.85%
• Cash to close: $575,128

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/11.0-bath land listed at $11.99M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($385k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $6.70M (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $5.86M (51.2% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($11.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $5.86M (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $191k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $177k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4.00M; list at $11.99M implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $575k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$307k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.