450 Seven Ponds Towd Rd · Water Mill, NY 11976

$11,995,000

8 bd · 11.0 ba · 9,906 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Built by one of the Hamptons' most respected builders and refined by an award-winning Manhattan design firm, this masterfully crafted, just-completed residence sets a new standard for Hamptons living. Set along a private access road, the property offers sweeping open-field reserve views that feel worlds away — yet convenient to farm stands, village shops, restaurants, and world-class beaches. Spanning nearly 10,000 square feet across three impeccably finished levels served by a private elevator, the estate offers eight bedrooms, ten full baths, and two half baths — striking an ideal balance between grand-scale entertaining and intimate serenity. A dramatic double-height foyer fl

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Private access road
• Junior primary suite

Tags

• PRIVATE ACCESS ROAD
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• OAK PANELED DINING ROOM
• SUNLIT BREAKFAST ROOM
• COVERED OUTDOOR AREAS
• JUNIOR PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water connected; Electricity connected; Propane; Cable connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; Living area based on plans; Finished basement with full and walk-out access; Partial attic
• Construction: Cedar exterior; In-ground private pool and spa
• Exterior features: Covered patio and terrace; Balcony; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas range and gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Wine refrigerator; Chefs kitchen with marble counters, island, pantry, and breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary suite on main level (master downstairs); Multiple bedrooms (total room count indicates many bedrooms)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Ten full bathrooms; Two half bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double vanity and soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath available; Beamed ceilings and cathedral ceilings; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen with kitchen island; Chefs kitchen with marble counters and pantry; Open floorplan with formal dining and entrance foyer; High ceilings and tray ceiling details; Crown molding and chandeliers; Central vacuum and built-in speakers; Smart thermostat; Wet bar and sauna; Soaking tub and double vanity in primary bath; His-and-hers closets and multiple walk-in closets; Storage and elevator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with multiple laundry locations; Washer and dryer included; Exhaust fan

🏗️ New construction. The $11,995,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $2,054,028.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/11.0-bath land listed at $11.99M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($385k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $6.70M (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $5.86M (51.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $5.86M (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $191k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $177k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $575k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$307k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($11.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4.00M; list at $11.99M implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,857,102 (51.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.93%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,054,028
• List price: $11,995,000
• Delta: 483.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $3,283,169
• Equity at exit: $1,649,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.3%
• Equity multiple: 16.30×
• Total profit: $8,796,726
• Equity at exit: $3,362,974

Cash invested: $575,128 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $58,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,772
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,568 /mo · $30,810/yr
• Insurance: −$856
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,300
• Net cashflow: $32,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,968

Max offer price $2,054,028

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33,496	-5% $32,786	+0% $32,076	+5% $31,366	+10% $30,657
Rent	-10% $27,449	-5% $29,763	+0% $32,076	+5% $34,390	+10% $36,703
Rate	-1.0pp $33,111	-0.5pp $32,599	base $32,076	+0.5pp $31,544	+1.0pp $31,002

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $513,507
• Closing costs: $61,621
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $11,995,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $11,995,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $11,995,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $11,995,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $11,995,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $11,995,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $11,995,000 Active 3793-char remark
16. 2025-10-16
    historical
17. 2025-07-30
    listed $15,995,000 Active
18. 2025-07-18
    soldstatus $4,000,000
19. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $10,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $702,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$115,058
• − Property taxes: −$30,810
• − Insurance: −$10,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$56,228
• − Management: −$56,228
• − Depreciation: −$59,754
• Taxable income: $374,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89,881
• After-tax cash flow: $295,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+17.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $11,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Listed $15,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $4,000,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $10,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,548 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.