The Dawn Plan

Wolfforth, TX 79382

$231,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,732/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,821/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $64,957

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.