The Dawn Plan · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$231,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · SingleFamily · 145 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Utility room
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $173,179 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $111,399
• Equity at exit: $208,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $339,881
• Equity at exit: $450,706

Cash invested: $64,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$290 /mo · $3,480/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,029

Max offer price $197,968

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-75	-5% $-155	+0% $-235	+5% $-315	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-304	+0% $-235	+5% $-167	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-176	base $-235	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,998
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.04mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	15d	1	0.27mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	15d	1	0.37mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	45d	1	0.41mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	45d	1	0.42mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	0.44mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	45d	1	0.46mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	0.46mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	15d	1	0.47mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	0.47mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.47mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	45d	1	0.47mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	45d	1	0.47mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	23d	1	0.49mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	45d	1	0.50mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	15d	1	0.51mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	0.51mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	45d	1	0.56mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	45d	1	0.56mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.62mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	15d	2	0.85mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	45d	1	0.98mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $231,990 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,990 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,990 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,990 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,990 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,990 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $231,990 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,990 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,990 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $231,990 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $231,990 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,990 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,990 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $231,990 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,990 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $231,990 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $231,990 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

18. 2026-01-27
    listed $229,990 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,995
• − Property taxes: −$3,480
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$6,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $231,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Listed $229,990 Zillow