12021 E Chavez Dr

Tucson, AZ 85641

$319,990D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-192/mo
• Annual: $-2,306/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $89,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Acacia Elementary School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #263 of 1,109 statewide, top 24%, 743 students, 29% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.