The Elm Plan

Midlothian, TX 76084

$409,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 276 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,468
• Tax + insurance: −$784
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-1,388/mo
• Annual: $-16,657/yr
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.64%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $131,761

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (41.5% below list).
• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maypearl ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #325 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.