The Elm Plan · Midlothian, TX 76084

$409,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily · 273 Days on market

$30/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

Key facts

• Central island
• Walk-in pantry
• Ample storage

Tags

• CENTRAL ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $409,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $470,586.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maypearl ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #325 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $239,667 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.65%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $470,586
• List price: $409,990
• Delta: -12.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Brahman St	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,996 (+8%)	5mo	$425,000	$213	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $83,779
• Equity at exit: $336,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $306,102
• Equity at exit: $647,440

Cash invested: $131,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$588 /mo · $7,059/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-1,389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,155

Max offer price $269,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,064	-5% $-1,226	+0% $-1,389	+5% $-1,551	+10% $-1,714
Rent	-10% $-1,578	-5% $-1,483	+0% $-1,389	+5% $-1,294	+10% $-1,199
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,152	-0.5pp $-1,269	base $-1,389	+0.5pp $-1,511	+1.0pp $-1,635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,646
• Closing costs: $14,118
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $409,990 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,990 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $409,990 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,990 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,990 Active 268 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,990 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $409,990 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $409,990 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $409,990 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $409,990 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $409,990 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $409,990 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,990 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,990 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $409,990 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $419,990 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

17. 2025-12-04
    status Active 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

18. 2025-12-04
    price $412,990 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

19. 2025-11-21
    historical 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

20. 2025-09-05
    listed $414,990 Active 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    The Elm floor plan offers 1,854 sq. ft. of well-designed single-story living space, featuring four bedrooms and two baths, making it an ideal choice for growing families or those who love to host. At the heart of the home is a spacious family room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily life. The kitchen is equipped with a central island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, offering both style and functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to household routines. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while the three secondary bedrooms are located nearby, sharing easy access to a full bath. For those seeking additional space, the floor plan includes an optional second-floor game room, offering flexibility for recreation, entertainment, or storage. With its smart layout, ample storage, and customization options, the Elm delivers the perfect blend of practicality and comfort for modern family living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,360
• − Property taxes: −$7,059
• − Insurance: −$2,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,301
• − Management: −$2,301
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$13,690
• Taxable loss: −$25,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,159
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maypearl ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829580
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,708
• Composite: 36.3/100
• National rank: #4697
• State rank: #325 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $412,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Listed $414,990 Zillow