3628 Spanish Cedar Pl

Florida Ridge, FL 34946

$277,269D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,454
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-442/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $77,635

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $277k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-442/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#353 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Florida Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.