3628 Spanish Cedar Pl · Florida Ridge, FL 34946

$280,445

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Townhouse · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $280k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home provides the convenience of having everything you need on one level. The inviting Great Room is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with an open layout that connects effortlessly to the kitchen and covered deck. The owner's suite is equipped with a private bathroom and a walk-in closet, while the secondary bedroom at the front is great for extra space or overnight guests.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Walk-in closet
• Private bathroom

Tags

• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3628 Spanish Cedar Pl, Fort Pierce, FL 34946
• Financial info: List price $302,695

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Larkspur plan; Single-family property (spec)
• Construction: New construction; Living area ~1308
• Exterior features: Spec home, new construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (plan: Larkspur)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-706/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Florida Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#353 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $79k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,883 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,912
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3772 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	9mo	$287,000	$219	85
3736 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	14mo	$280,000	$214	82
3775 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	16mo	$280,000	$214	82
3802 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	12mo	$279,990	$214	82
3838 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (0%)	9mo	$282,630	$216	79
3835 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	10mo	$310,000	$216	64
3724 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	62
3856 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	13mo	$289,000	$201	60
3754 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	16mo	$299,990	$209	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $75,941
• Equity at exit: $174,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $226,728
• Equity at exit: $315,959

Cash invested: $78,525 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34946

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,379 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,207/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $271,934

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $38	+0% $-59	+5% $-156	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-153	+0% $-59	+5% $35	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $13	base $-59	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,111
• Closing costs: $8,413
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3766 Harborside Ave Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,160	$1.65	14d	1	0.12mi
2066 5th Ct SE Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$3,850	$2.72	21d	1	0.87mi
335 Hawthorne Ln Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	21d	1	1.13mi
254 Hawthorne Ln Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,900	$1.70	21d	1	1.21mi
2320 Water Oaks Ln Unit 111 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$3,500	$1.93	21d	1	1.35mi
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,445 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,445 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $280,445 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,533 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,533 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $284,533 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $302,695 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $302,695 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 397-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $302,695 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,709
• − Property taxes: −$4,207
• − Insurance: −$1,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,284
• − Management: −$2,284
• − Depreciation: −$8,158
• Taxable loss: −$5,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Florida Ridge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #6129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,629
• Population (ZIP): 6,588

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 34% White 26% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.92%
• Current HPI: 351.3324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B