953 Mosser Dr

New Castle, PA 16101

$119,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 384 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,385/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,561/yr
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 384 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Shenango Area SD (town): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #207 of 539 in PA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $120k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 384 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.