953 Mosser Dr · New Castle, PA 16101

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 384 Days on market

Built 1973 8,712 sqft lot $84/sqft · 59% below area Est $190k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4- Bedroom & 1 Bath Split Level Home with a 2 Car Detached Garage. Plus a Storage Shed on a Quiet Street. Property is being Sold As Is and No Warranty!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Storage shed
• Split level home

Tags

• SPLIT LEVEL HOME
• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• QUIET STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Shenango Area SD (town): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #207 of 539 in PA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 384 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $120k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 384 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,110
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -36.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
844 Rose Stop Rd	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,300 (-9%)	21mo	$225,000	$173	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,537
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $52,375
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16101

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 20.1%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,426/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 384 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 383 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 382 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 381 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 380 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 378 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 377 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 374 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 373 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 372 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 369 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 368 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 367 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 366 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 365 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 364 DOM
17. 2025-08-21
    price $119,900 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    4- Bedroom & 1 Bath Split Level Home with a 2 Car Detached Garage. Plus a Storage Shed on a Quiet Street. Property is being Sold As Is and No Warranty!

18. 2025-05-31
    listed $129,900 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    4- Bedroom & 1 Bath Split Level Home with a 2 Car Detached Garage. Plus a Storage Shed on a Quiet Street. Property is being Sold As Is and No Warranty!

19. 2002-03-25
    soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,426 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,426 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,426
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenango Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3463
• State rank: #207 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lawrence County · 30,767 people
• City population: 30,767
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,767
• Household income: $51,128
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.77%
• Current HPI: 159.3091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.05%
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $119,900 AVBREALTORS
• 2025-05-31 Listed $129,900 AVBREALTORS
• 2002-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+52.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,426 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.