138 Private Road 227

Aquilla, TX 76692

$154,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-87/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-87/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (14.1% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,231 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aquilla ISD (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #183 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hill Co J J A E P (2 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.