138 Private Road 227 · Aquilla, TX 76692

$154,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1985 0.34 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great lake view home in rural community and boat ramp access. This nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath Cedar house with beautiful view of Lake Aquilla from first floor deck 30x 16 and 2nd floor balcony 16x 10. Large living room with high ceiling, lots of windows for light and view, large rock fireplace. All this in a country setting. Storage building 16x 10 and workshop 12x 16 and a 7x7 tree house.

Key facts

• Large rock fireplace
• Quiet street
• First floor deck

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS
• FIRST FLOOR DECK
• SECOND FLOOR BALCONY
• LARGE ROCK FIREPLACE
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Hill; Directions: FM 933 to FM 226, right on Private Road 227; High geocode confidence
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage; Special listing condition: Real Estate Owned
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Off-street parking; No covered or carport spaces
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Rural water district; Septic system; Private road
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1985; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Year built: 1985
• Exterior features: Private road access; Less than 1/2 acre lot in Quail Ridge subdivision; Will not subdivide

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (Primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood-burning fireplace
• Interior features: Built-in features; One and one-half story layout; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-87/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,231 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aquilla ISD (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #183 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hill Co J J A E P (2 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,251 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-25,405
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-22,667
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,163/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $152,717

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $36	+0% $-7	+5% $-51	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-60	+0% $-7	+5% $45	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $32	base $-7	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $154,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $154,000 Active
17. 2018-06-07
    soldstatus
18. 2018-05-25
    soldstatus Sold 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great lake view home in rural community and boat ramp access. This nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath Cedar house with beautiful view of Lake Aquilla from first floor deck 30x 16 and 2nd floor balcony 16x 10. Large living room with high ceiling, lots of windows for light and view, large rock fireplace. All this in a country setting. Storage building 16x 10 and workshop 12x 16 and a 7x7 tree house.

19. 2018-03-25
    status Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great lake view home in rural community and boat ramp access. This nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath Cedar house with beautiful view of Lake Aquilla from first floor deck 30x 16 and 2nd floor balcony 16x 10. Large living room with high ceiling, lots of windows for light and view, large rock fireplace. All this in a country setting. Storage building 16x 10 and workshop 12x 16 and a 7x7 tree house.

20. 2018-02-11
    listed $124,900 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great lake view home in rural community and boat ramp access. This nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath Cedar house with beautiful view of Lake Aquilla from first floor deck 30x 16 and 2nd floor balcony 16x 10. Large living room with high ceiling, lots of windows for light and view, large rock fireplace. All this in a country setting. Storage building 16x 10 and workshop 12x 16 and a 7x7 tree house.

21. 2016-11-02
    soldstatus
22. 2016-11-01
    soldstatus Sold 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

23. 2016-10-10
    status Pending 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

24. 2016-09-28
    status Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

25. 2016-09-19
    status Pending 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

26. 2016-09-15
    historical Active Option Contract 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

27. 2016-09-02
    price $89,500 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

28. 2016-06-20
    price $99,500 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

29. 2016-05-25
    listed $110,000 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great place to live very close to Aquilla Lake and boat ramp describes this nice 3 bdr. 2 ba. Cedar house with pretty view of Lake Aquilla. Comes with CHA, Aquilla school district, , big covered deck, balcony, rock fireplace in a country setting! $110,000

30. 2012-04-17
    soldstatus
31. 2012-01-10
    listed $33,000
32. 2007-05-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$2,163
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$2,709
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$650
• After-tax cash flow: $563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aquilla ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808520
• Math proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,443
• Composite: 50.58/100
• National rank: #3969
• State rank: #183 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Aquilla

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1231
• US rank: #21480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+366.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $154,000 NTREIS
• 2018-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-03-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-02-11 Listed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2016-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-11-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-10-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-09-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2016-09-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-09-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-09-02 Price Changed $89,500 NTREIS
• 2016-06-20 Price Changed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2016-05-25 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2012-04-17 Sold (MLS) — CTXMLS
• 2012-01-10 Listed $33,000 CTXMLS
• 2007-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,163 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.