240 Berea 4

Jefferson, TX 75657

$45,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,971/yr
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.39%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.32%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 275 students, 75% FRL); Jefferson J H (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 333 students, 73% FRL); Jefferson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 380 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 43% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.