240 Berea 4 · Jefferson, TX 75657

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1967 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a fixer upper in the country? This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home would be a rewarding project with endless potential. Nice, large 1.03 acre lot. This property is conveniently located approximately 5 miles northwest of Historic Jefferson, and 8 miles from Lake O' the Pines.

Key facts

• Large 1.03 acre lot
• 1.03 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE 1.03 ACRE LOT
• 8 MILES FROM LAKE O' THE PINES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 275 students, 75% FRL); Jefferson J H (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 333 students, 73% FRL); Jefferson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 380 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 43% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.39%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $24,424
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $62,177
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75657

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $413

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $523	-5% $510	+0% $498	+5% $485	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $415	-5% $456	+0% $498	+5% $539	+10% $580
Rate	-1.0pp $520	-0.5pp $509	base $498	+0.5pp $486	+1.0pp $474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $45,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 282-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,001
• − Management: −$1,001
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,344
• After-tax cash flow: $4,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,504
• Composite: 22.93/100
• National rank: #7992
• State rank: #689 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,842

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,339 people
• By 2030: 8,881 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 8,044 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 7,449 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,638 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 5,871 · -37.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.4% · R 75.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+43.1 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.60%
• Current HPI: 126.2671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $45,000 LAAR
• 2001-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $855 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.