9052 Thomas Rd Unit 64ES

Lake Delta, NY 13363

$199,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,235 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,621/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,139/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rome City School District (town): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #516 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.