9052 Thomas Rd Unit 64ES · Lake Delta, NY 13363

$199,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,235 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 1900 1.52 ac lot Est $215k · 7% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the town of Lee, this circa 1900 2 story colonial is full of charm! Much of the original woodwork and character has been preserved. The covered wrap around porch provides an inviting draw for those hot summer days. A separate screened porch is easily accessible from the dining and family room. Situated on a 1.5 acre partially wooded lot, this 2235 sq ft home has 4 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a small room on 2nd floor ideal for a nursery, den or 2nd bath. The large atrium is an unexpected bonus! There is a small outbuilding - perfect for use as an art studio, play house, or garden shed. This property does not lack for storage! Not only is there a 2-stall detached garage adjacent to

Key facts

• 1.5 acre wooded lot
• 1.52 acre lot
• 6 garage spots

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK PRESERVED
• COVERED WRAP AROUND PORCH
• SEPARATE SCREENED PORCH
• 1.5 ACRE WOODED LOT
• OUTBUILDING FOR ART STUDIO
• RECENT UPDATES: METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rome City School District (town): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #516 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,063 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5532 Lee Center Taberg (main St) Rd	0.32mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,200 (-2%)	8mo	$212,000	$96	68
5498 Lee Center Taberg Rd	0.39mi	4/1.5	2,500 (+12%)	3mo	$85,000	$34	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $16,152
• Equity at exit: $87,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $68,289
• Equity at exit: $133,483

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13363

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $185,261

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-10-06
   status Pending
2. 2024-10-02
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2024-07-16
   price $199,000
4. 2024-06-11
   price $245,000
5. 2024-05-20
   listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rome City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624900
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,406
• Composite: 34.52/100
• National rank: #5178
• State rank: #516 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Delta

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,290

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.83%
• Current HPI: 192.4254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-10-02 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $245,000 CNYIS
• 2024-05-20 Listed $265,000 CNYIS