801 Pine Forest Trl

Knightdale, NC 27545

$152,250D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$798
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$228
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-186/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $42,630

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $152k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-186/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (1.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in NC, #1,212 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lockhart Elementary (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,168 of 1,410 statewide, top 83%, 459 students, 74% FRL); Neuse River Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 908 students, 77% FRL); Knightdale High (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,702 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 30% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $152k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in Knightdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.