9 Kelsea Ave

Center Harbor, NH 03226

$449,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,434 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-1,255/mo
• Annual: $-15,058/yr
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.98%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (56.6% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (56.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Inter-Lakes School District (rural): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #50 of 98 in NH (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandwich Central School (math 50% / reading 70%, grade B-, #42 of 263 statewide, top 19%, 75 students, 19% FRL); Inter-Lakes Middle School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade D-, #42 of 96 statewide, top 44%, 150 students, 26% FRL); Inter-Lakes High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #37 of 90 statewide, top 49%, 289 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $223k; list at $449k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.